Purpose: Develop a prediction model to determine the impact of patient and lesion factors on freedom from target lesion revascularization (ffTLR) for patients who are candidates for Zilver PTX drug-eluting stent (DES) treatment for femoropopliteal lesions.
Methods: Patient factors, lesion characteristics, and TLR results from five global studies were utilized for model development. Factors potentially associated with TLR (sex, age, diabetes, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, renal disease, smoking status, Rutherford classification, lesion length, reference vessel diameter (RVD), popliteal involvement, total occlusion, calcification severity, prior interventions, and number of runoff vessels) were analyzed in a Cox proportional hazards model. Probability of ffTLR was generated for three example patient profiles via combinations of patient and lesion factors. TLR was defined as reintervention performed for ≥ 50% diameter stenosis after recurrent clinical symptoms.
Results: The model used records from 2227 patients. The median follow-up time was 23.9 months (range: 0.03-60.8). The Kaplan-Meier estimates for ffTLR were 90.5% through 1 year and 75.2% through 5 years. In a multivariate analysis, sex, age, Rutherford classification, lesion length, RVD, total occlusion, and prior interventions were significant factors. The example patient profiles have predicted 1-year ffTLRs of 97.4, 92.3, and 86.0% and 5-year predicted ffTLRs of 92.8, 79.5, and 64.8%. The prediction model is available as an interactive web-based tool ( https://cooksfa.z13.web.core.windows.net ).
Conclusions: This is the first prediction model that uses an extensive dataset to determine the impact of patient and lesion factors on ffTLR through 5 years and provides an interactive web-based tool for expected patient outcomes with the Zilver PTX DES.
Clinical trial registrations: Zilver PTX RCT unique identifier: NCT00120406; Zilver PTX single-arm study unique identifier: NCT01094678; Zilver PTX China study unique identifier: NCT02171962; Zilver PTX US post-approval study unique identifier: NCT01901289; Zilver PTX Japan post-market surveillance study unique identifier: NCT02254837.
Levels of evidence: Zilver PTX RCT: Level 2, randomized controlled trial; Single-arm study: Level 4, large case series; China study: Level 4, case series; US post-approval study: Level 4, case series Japan PMS study: Level 4, large case series.
Keywords: Drug-eluting stent; Paclitaxel; Peripheral artery disease; Prediction model; Target lesion revascularization.