Importance: Accumulating evidence indicates that higher blood pressure (BP) variability from one physician office visit to the next (hereafter referred to as visit-to-visit BP variability) is associated with poor outcomes. Short-term measurement (throughout 1 year) of visit-to-visit BP variability in high-risk older patients may help identify patients at increased risk of death.
Objective: To evaluate whether short-term visit-to-visit BP variability is associated with increased long-term mortality risk.
Design, setting, and participants: The US cohort of the International Verapamil SR-Trandolapril Study (INVEST), a randomized clinical trial of 16 688 patients aged 50 years or older with hypertension and coronary artery disease, was conducted between September 2, 1997, and December 15, 2000, with in-trial follow-up through February 14, 2003. The study evaluated a calcium antagonist (sustained-release verapamil plus trandolapril) vs β-blocker (atenolol plus hydrochlorothiazide) treatment strategy. Blood pressure measurement visits were scheduled every 6 weeks for the first 6 months and biannually thereafter. Statistical analysis was performed from September 2, 1997, to May 1, 2014.
Exposures: Visit-to-visit systolic BP (SBP) and diastolic BP variability during the first year of enrollment using 4 different BP variability measures: standard deviation, coefficient of variation, average real variability, and variability independent of the mean.
Main outcomes and measures: All-cause death, assessed via the US National Death Index, beginning after the exposure assessment period through May 1, 2014.
Results: For the present post hoc analysis, long-term mortality data were available on 16 688 patients (9001 women [54%]; mean [SD] age, 66.5 [9.9] years; 45% White patients, 16% Black patients, and 37% Hispanic patients). During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10.9 (4.2) years, 5058 patients (30%) died. All 4 variability measures for SBP were significantly associated with long-term mortality after adjustment for baseline demographic characteristics and comorbidities. After comparison of lowest vs highest variability measure quintiles, the magnitude of the association with death remained statistically significant even after adjustment for baseline demographic characteristics and comorbidities (average real variability: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.18; 95% CI, 1.08-1.30; standard deviation: aHR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.04-1.24; coefficient of variation: aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06-1.26; variability independent of the mean: aHR, 1.15; 95% CI, 1.05-1.25). The signal was stronger in women compared with men. Associations of diastolic BP variability measures with death were weaker than for SBP and were not significant after adjustment.
Conclusions and relevance: This study suggests that, in a large population of older patients with hypertension and coronary artery disease, short-term visit-to-visit SBP variability was associated with excess long-term mortality, especially for women. Efforts to identify and minimize visit-to-visit SBP variability may be important in reducing excess mortality later in life.
Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00133692.