Objectives: Although some prognostic factors for COVID-19 were consistently identified across the studies, differences were found for other factors that could be due to the characteristics of the study populations and the variables incorporated into the statistical model. We aimed to a priori identify specific patient profiles and then assess their association with the outcomes in COVID-19 patients with respiratory symptoms admitted specifically to hospital wards.
Methods: We conducted a retrospective single-center study from February 2020 to April 2020. A non-supervised cluster analysis was first used to detect patient profiles based on characteristics at admission of 220 consecutive patients admitted to our institution. Then, we assessed the prognostic value using Cox regression analyses to predict survival.
Results: Three clusters were identified, with 47 patients in cluster 1, 87 in cluster 2, and 86 in cluster 3; the presentation of the patients differed among the clusters. Cluster 1 mostly included sexagenarian patients with active malignancies who were admitted early after the onset of COVID-19. Cluster 2 included the oldest patients, who were generally overweight and had hypertension and renal insufficiency, while cluster 3 included the youngest patients, who had gastrointestinal symptoms and delayed admission. Sixty-day survival rates were 74.3%, 50.6% and 96.5% in clusters 1, 2, and 3, respectively. This was confirmed by the multivariable Cox analyses that showed the prognostic value of these patterns.
Conclusion: The cluster approach seems appropriate and pragmatic for the early identification of patient profiles that could help physicians segregate patients according to their prognosis.