Survival Among New Yorkers with HIV from 1981 to 2017: Inequities by Race/Ethnicity and Transmission Risk Persist into the Post-HAART Era

Abstract

Data on long-term survival among people with HIV (PWH) can inform the development of services for this population. An estimated 90,000 PWH live in New York City (NYC). Using HIV surveillance data, we conducted survival analysis of PWH diagnosed in NYC before and after introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) (pre-HAART cohort: 1981-1994; post-HAART cohort: 1995-2016). We created Kaplan-Meier curves by cohort and demographic factors, and Cox proportional hazards models to evaluate adjusted mortality risk by cohort. 205,584 adults and adolescents were diagnosed with HIV in NYC from 1981 to 2016, half each in the pre-HAART and post-HAART eras. The pre-HAART cohort had significantly poorer survival compared with the post-HAART cohort. Adjusted mortality risk in the pre-HAART cohort was almost threefold that in the post-HAART cohort (HR 2.84, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.80-2.88). In sex- and risk-stratified models, men who have sex with men (MSM) had the largest difference in mortality risk pre-HAART versus post-HAART (HR 5.41, 95% CI 5.23-5.59). Race/ethnic disparities were pronounced among MSM, with Latino/Hispanic and White MSM having lower mortality than Black MSM. Females with heterosexual risk born outside the US had lower mortality than US-born women. The improvement in survival post-HAART was most pronounced for White people. Survival among persons diagnosed with HIV in NYC increased significantly since the introduction of HAART. However, among MSM and among PWH overall, improvements even post-HAART lagged for Black and Latino/Hispanic people, underscoring the need to address structural barriers, including racism, to achieve optimal health outcomes among people with HIV.

Keywords: Antiretroviral therapy; HIV; Mortality; Risk factors; Survival.