COVID-19 has brought a significant impact to the global health system, and also opportunities and challenges to epidemiological researches. Theoretical epidemiological models can simulate the process of epidemic in scenarios under different conditions. Therefore, modeling researches can analyze the epidemical trend of COVID-19, predict epidemical risks, and evaluate effects of different control measures and vaccine policies. Theoretical epidemiological modeling researches provide scientific advice for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and play a crucial role in containing COVID-19 over the past year. In this study, we review the theoretical epidemiological modeling researches on COVID-19 and summarize the role of theoretical epidemiological models in the prevention and control of COVID-19, in order to provide reference for the combination of mathematical modeling and epidemic control.
新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的暴发给全球卫生体系带来巨大冲击，也为科学研究带来了机遇与挑战。理论流行病学模型可通过数学手段定量模拟不同情境和干预下的疫情发展动态，研究分析疫情流行趋势，并评估各类防控措施与疫苗策略的效果。理论流行病学模型研究为疫情防控提供科学理论依据，在这一年多的疫情防控中发挥了巨大作用。本研究对国内外针对新冠疫情开展的理论流行病学模型研究工作进行综述，总结理论流行病学模型在疫情防控应用方面的研究进展，为理论建模与疫情防控相结合提供参考。.