Prognostic value and predication model of microvascular invasion in patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma: a multicenter study from China

Abstract

Background: At present, hepatectomy is still the most common and effective treatment method for intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) patients. However, the postoperative prognosis is poor. Therefore, the prognostic factors for these patients require further exploration. Whether microvascular invasion (MVI) plays a crucial role in the prognosis of ICC patients is still unclear. Moreover, few studies have focused on preoperative predictions of MVI in ICC patients.

Methods: Clinicopathological data of 704 ICC patients after curative resection were retrospectively collected from 13 hospitals. Independent risk factors were identified by the Cox or logistic proportional hazards model. In addition, the survival curves of the MVI-positive and MVI-negative groups before and after matching were analyzed. Subsequently, 341 patients from a single center (Eastern Hepatobiliary Hospital) in the above multicenter retrospective cohort were used to construct a nomogram prediction model. Then, the model was evaluated by the index of concordance (C-Index) and the calibration curve.

Results: After propensity score matching (PSM), Child-Pugh grade and MVI were independent risk factors for overall survival (OS) in ICC patients after curative resection. Major hepatectomy and MVI were independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). The survival curves of OS and RFS before and after PSM in the MVI-positive groups were significantly different compared with those in the MVI-negative groups. Multivariate logistic regression results demonstrated that age, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGT), and preoperative image tumor number were independent risk factors for the occurrence of MVI. Furthermore, the prediction model in the form of a nomogram was constructed, which showed good prediction ability for both the training (C-index = 0.7622) and validation (C-index = 0.7591) groups, and the calibration curve showed good consistency with reality.

Conclusion: MVI is an independent risk factor for the prognosis of ICC patients after curative resection. Age, GGT, and preoperative image tumor number were independent risk factors for the occurrence of MVI in ICC patients. The prediction model constructed further showed good predictive ability in both the training and validation groups with good consistency with reality.

Keywords: Intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma; Microvascular invasion; Prediction model; Prognosis.