How immunity from and interaction with seasonal coronaviruses can shape SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Dec 7;118(49):e2108395118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2108395118.

Abstract

We hypothesized that cross-protection from seasonal epidemics of human coronaviruses (HCoVs) could have affected severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission, including generating reduced susceptibility in children. To determine what the prepandemic distribution of immunity to HCoVs was, we fitted a mathematical model to 6 y of seasonal coronavirus surveillance data from England and Wales. We estimated a duration of immunity to seasonal HCoVs of 7.8 y (95% CI 6.3 to 8.1) and show that, while cross-protection between HCoV and SARS-CoV-2 may contribute to the age distribution, it is insufficient to explain the age pattern of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first wave of the pandemic in England and Wales. Projections from our model illustrate how different strengths of cross-protection between circulating coronaviruses could determine the frequency and magnitude of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics over the coming decade, as well as the potential impact of cross-protection on future seasonal coronavirus transmission.

Keywords: COVID-19; SARS-CoV-2; coronaviruses; cross-protection; immunity.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Basic Reproduction Number
  • COVID-19 / epidemiology
  • COVID-19 / immunology
  • COVID-19 / transmission
  • Coronavirus
  • Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / immunology*
  • Coronavirus Infections / transmission
  • Cross Protection
  • England / epidemiology
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • SARS-CoV-2
  • Seasons
  • Wales / epidemiology