Associations between ambient temperature and adult asthma hospitalizations in Beijing, China: a time-stratified case-crossover study

Abstract

Background: Studies on the associations between ambient temperature and asthma hospitalizations are limited, and the results are controversial. We aimed to assess the short-term effects of ambient temperature on the risk of asthma hospitalizations and quantify the hospitalization burdens of asthma attributable to non-optimal temperature in adults in Beijing, China.

Methods: We collected daily asthma hospitalizations, meteorological factors and air quality data in Beijing from 2012 to 2015. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design and fitted a distributed lag non-linear model with a conditional quasi-Poisson regression to explore the association between ambient temperature and adult asthma hospitalizations. The effect modifications of these associations by gender and age were assessed by stratified analyses. We also computed the attributable fractions and numbers with 95% empirical confidence intervals (eCI) of asthma hospitalizations due to extreme and moderate temperatures.

Results: From 2012 to 2015, we identified a total of 18,500 hospitalizations for asthma among adult residents in Beijing, China. Compared with the optimal temperature (22 °C), the cumulative relative risk (CRR) over lag 0-30 days was 2.32 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) of 1.57-3.42 for extreme cold corresponding to the 2.5th percentile (- 6.5 °C) of temperature distribution and 2.04 (95% CI 1.52-2.74) for extreme heat corresponding to the 97.5th percentile (29 °C) of temperature distribution. 29.1% (95% eCI 17.5-38.0%) of adult asthma hospitalizations was attributable to non-optimum temperatures. Moderate cold temperatures yielded most of the burdens, with an attributable fraction of 20.3% (95% eCI 9.1-28.7%). The temperature-related risks of asthma hospitalizations were more prominent in females and younger people (19-64 years old).

Conclusions: There was a U-shaped association between ambient temperature and the risk of adult asthma hospitalizations in Beijing, China. Females and younger patients were more vulnerable to the effects of non-optimum temperatures. Most of the burden was attributable to moderate cold. Our findings may uncover the potential impact of climate changes on asthma exacerbations.

Keywords: Ambient temperature; Asthma; Cold effect; Heat effect; Hospitalizations.