Determination of respiratory syncytial virus epidemic seasons by using 95% confidence interval of positivity rates, 2011-2021, Germany

Influenza Other Respir Viruses. 2022 Sep;16(5):854-857. doi: 10.1111/irv.12996. Epub 2022 Apr 29.

Abstract

Based on our national outpatient sentinel surveillance, we have developed a novel approach to determine respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemic seasons in Germany by using RSV positivity rate and its lower limit of 95% confidence interval. This method was evaluated retrospectively on nine RSV seasons, and it is also well-suited to describe off-season circulation of RSV in near real time as observed for seasons 2020/21 and 2021/22 during the COVID-19 pandemic. Prospective application is of crucial importance to enable timely actions for health service delivery and prevention.

Keywords: acute respiratory infection; confidence interval; epidemic season; respiratory syncytial virus; surveillance.

MeSH terms

  • COVID-19
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Pandemics
  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections* / epidemiology
  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus, Human* / genetics
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Seasons