Background: Hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) is caused by a group of enteroviruses (EVs) and has a high incidence in children; some subtypes had high mortalities in children. The subtypes of HFMD had a different incidence across seasons. Thereby, we suspect that the infection of HFMD is varied by meteorological factors. However, studies examining serotype-specific associations between meteorological factors and HFMD incidence were rare.
Methods: We obtained all HFMD cases that occurred from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2018 in Zhejiang province from the China Information System for Disease Control and Prevention (CISDCP). Daily meteorological data for Zhejiang province were provided by the China Methodological Data Sharing Service System and linked to HFMD cases based on residential addresses and dates of onset. The associations between meteorological factors and HFMDs were examined using distributed lag non-linear models (DLNMs) for each serotype.
Results: Overall, the incidences of all HFMD cases were increasing in study years, while the number of severe and fatality cases were decreasing. The dominant serotypes varied by study year. The association between temperature and incidence of both CVA16 and EV71 serotypes showed an inverted U shape. The risk ratio for CVA16 was increasing when temperature is 11-25°C, reaching the maximum RR at 18°C and humidity above 77% can promote the occurrence with CVA16, and temperature between 11 and 32°C with the maximum RR at 21°C and relative humidity above 77% are risk conditions of the occurrence of HFMD associated with EV71. For other enteroviruses causing HFMD, temperature above 11°C and humidity above 76% have a risk effect. CVA16, EV71, and all enteroviruses of HFMD have a maximum effect on lag day 0, and temperature is 35, 34, and 33°C respectively, while the enteroviruses of HFMD other than EV71 and CVA16 has a maximum effect when the temperature is 33°C and the lag time is 7 days.
Conclusion: This study shows that meteorological factors have an effect on the occurrence of different HFMD serotypes. Local control strategies for public health should be taken in time to prevent and reduce the risk of HFMD while the weather is getting warmer and wetter.
Keywords: HFMD prediction; Zhejiang province; meteorological factors; seasonality; serotype.
Copyright © 2022 Chen, Sun, Ling, Sun, Cao, Chen and Miao.