Most patients who develop hepatocellular carcinoma reside in resource-poor countries, a category that includes most countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Age-standardised incidence rates of hepatocellular carcinoma in western, central, eastern, and southern Africa is 6·53 per 100 000 inhabitants to 11·1 per 100 000 inhabitants. In high-income countries, around 40% of patients are diagnosed at an early stage, in which interventions with curative intent or palliative interventions are possible. By contrast, 95% of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma in sub-Saharan Africa present with advanced or terminal disease. In high-income countries, targets of 30-40% that have been set for intervention with curative intent are regularly met, with expected 5-year overall survival rates in the region of 70%. These outcomes are in sharp contrast with the very small proportion of patients in sub-Saharan Africa who are treated with curative intent. Primary prevention through the eradication and reduction of risk factors is still suboptimal because of logistical challenges. The challenges facing primary prevention, in combination with difficult-to-manage historic and emerging risk factors, such as ethanol overconsumption and metabolic dysfunction-associated liver disease, mandates secondary prevention for populations at risk through screening and surveillance. Although the increased treatment needs yielded by screening and surveillance in high-income countries are manageable by the incremental expansion of existing interventional resources, the lack of resources in sub-Saharan Africa will undermine the possible benefits of secondary prevention. An estimate of the projected effect of the introduction and expansion of screening and surveillance, resulting in stage migration and possibilities for active interventions for hepatocellular carcinoma, would facilitate optimal planning and development of resources.
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