Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant infections in Hangzhou, Zhejiang, China, January-February 2022

Abstract

Objectives: We aimed to explore the transmission dynamics of the Omicron BA.1.1 variant in an outbreak in China.

Methods: We constructed 113 transmission pairs based on the time of exposure and symptom onset for identified infectors and infectees, using the epidemiological data collected during an outbreak in Hangzhou, Zhejiang province, China, between January and February 2022. The key epidemiological parameters were estimated.

Results: The mean estimates of the incubation period and latent period distributions were 3.8 days (95% credible interval: 3.5, 4.1) and 3.1 days (2.8, 3.5), respectively. The overall transmission risk peaked at symptom onset, and we estimated that 33.6% (24.8, 42.5) of transmission occurred before symptom onset. The forward generation time decreased from 5.2 days (4.7, 5.7) at the start of the outbreak to 2.2 days (2.0, 2.5) by the end. Allowing this variation over time in the generation time distribution, we estimated that the reproduction number dropped rapidly from 9.5 (3.5, 18.4) to 0.8 (0.3, 1.5) over the outbreak.

Conclusion: Shorter incubation period and latent period were estimated for the Omicron BA.1.1 variant. Stringent public health measures prevented a large epidemic by reducing transmission, as indicated by the shortened generation time.

Keywords: China; Omicron; SARS-CoV-2; Transmission.