Dietary Carbohydrate and Fat Intakes and Risk of Mortality in the Japanese Population: the Japan Multi-Institutional Collaborative Cohort Study

Abstract

Background: Previous cohort studies have yielded contradictory findings regarding the associations of dietary carbohydrate and fat intakes with risks of mortality.

Objectives: We examined long-term associations of carbohydrate and fat intakes with mortality.

Methods: In this cohort study, 34,893 men and 46,440 women aged 35-69 y (mean body mass index of 23.7 and 22.2 kg/m², respectively) were followed up from the baseline survey (2004-2014) to the end of 2017 or 2018. Intakes of carbohydrate, fat, and total energy were estimated using a food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated for all-cause and cause-specific mortality according to percentage of energy intakes of carbohydrate and fat.

Results: During a mean 8.9-y follow-up, we identified 2783 deaths (1838 men and 945 women). Compared with men who consumed 50% to <55% of energy from carbohydrate, those who consumed <40% carbohydrate energy experienced a significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality (the multivariable-adjusted HR: 1.59; 95% CI: 1.19-2.12; P-trend = 0.002). Among women with 5 y or longer of follow-up, women with high-carbohydrate intake recorded a higher risk of all-cause mortality; the multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) was 1.71 (0.93-3.13) for ≥65% of energy from carbohydrate compared with that for 50% to <55% (P-trend = 0.005). Men with high fat intake had a higher risk of cancer-related mortality; the multivariable-adjusted HR (95% CI) for ≥35% was 1.79 (1.11-2.90) compared with that for 20% to <25%. Fat intake was marginally inversely associated with risk of all-cause and cancer-related mortality in women (P-trend = 0.054 and 0.058, respectively).

Conclusions: An unfavorable association with mortality is observed for low-carbohydrate intake in men and for high-carbohydrate intake in women. High fat intake can be associated with a lower mortality risk in women among Japanese adults with a relatively high-carbohydrate intake.

Keywords: Japanese population; cohort study; dietary intake; mortality risk.