A collection of idioms for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science

M Vink; M J Sjerps

doi:10.1016/j.fsisyn.2023.100331

A collection of idioms for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science

Forensic Sci Int Synerg. 2023 May 12:6:100331. doi: 10.1016/j.fsisyn.2023.100331. eCollection 2023.

Authors

M Vink^{1

2}, M J Sjerps^{1

2}

Affiliations

¹ University of Amsterdam, KdVI, PO Box 94248, 1090 GE, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
² Netherlands Forensic Institute, Laan van Ypenburg 6, 2497GB, The Hague, Netherlands.

Abstract

This paper presents a collection of idioms that is useful for modeling activity level evaluations in forensic science using Bayesian networks. The idioms are categorized into five groups: cause-consequence idioms, narrative idioms, synthesis idioms, hypothesis-conditioning idioms, and evidence-conditioning idioms. Each category represents a specific modeling objective. Furthermore, we support the use of an idiom-based approach and emphasize the relevance of our collection by combining several of the presented idioms to create a more comprehensive template model. This model can be used in cases involving transfer evidence and disputes over the actor and/or activity. Additionally, we cite literature that employs idioms in template models or case-specific models, providing the reader with examples of their use in forensic casework.

Keywords: Activity level; Bayesian networks; Evidence; Forensic science; Idioms; Probability.