Positive association of SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater and reported COVID-19 cases in Singapore - A study across three populations

Abstract

Wastewater testing of SARS-CoV-2 has been adopted globally and has shown to be a useful, non-intrusive surveillance method for monitoring COVID-19 trends. In Singapore, wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented across various sites and has facilitated timely COVID-19 management and response. From April 2020 to February 2022, SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentrations in wastewater monitored across three populations, nationally, in the community, and in High Density Living Environments (HDLEs) were aggregated into indices and compared with reported COVID-19 cases and hospitalisations. Temporal trends and associations of these indices were compared descriptively and quantitatively, using Poisson Generalised Linear Models and Generalised Additive Models. National vaccination rates and vaccine breakthrough infection rates were additionally considered as confounders to shedding. Fitted models quantified the temporal associations between the indices and cases and COVID-related hospitalisations. At the national level, the wastewater index was a leading indicator of COVID-19 cases (p-value <0.001) of one week, and a contemporaneous association with hospitalisations (p-value <0.001) was observed. At finer levels of surveillance, the community index was observed to be contemporaneously associated with COVID-19 cases (p-value <0.001) and had a lagging association of 1-week in HDLEs (p-value <0.001). These temporal differences were attributed to differences in testing routines for different sites during the study period and the timeline of COVID-19 progression in infected persons. Overall, this study demonstrates the utility of wastewater surveillance in understanding underlying COVID-19 transmission and shedding levels, particularly for areas with falling or low case ascertainment. In such settings, wastewater surveillance showed to be a lead indicator of COVID-19 cases. The findings also underscore the potential of wastewater surveillance for monitoring other infectious diseases threats.

Keywords: COVID-19; Modelling; Non-intrusive monitoring; SARS-CoV-2; Wastewater surveillance.