Protein kinase function and interactions with drugs are controlled in part by the movement of the DFG and ɑC-Helix motifs, which enable kinases to adopt various conformational states. Small molecule ligands elicit therapeutic effects with distinct selectivity profiles and residence times that often depend on the kinase conformation(s) they bind. However, the limited availability of experimentally determined structural data for kinases in inactive states restricts drug discovery efforts for this major protein family. Modern AI-based structural modeling methods hold potential for exploring the previously experimentally uncharted druggable conformational space for kinases. Here, we first evaluated the currently explored conformational space of kinases in the PDB and models generated by AlphaFold2 (AF2) (1) and ESMFold (2), two prominent AI-based structure prediction methods. We then investigated AF2's ability to predict kinase structures in different conformations at various multiple sequence alignment (MSA) depths, based on this parameter's ability to explore conformational diversity. Our results showed a bias within the PDB and predicted structural models generated by AF2 and ESMFold toward structures of kinases in the active state over alternative conformations, particularly those conformations controlled by the DFG motif. Finally, we demonstrate that predicting kinase structures using AF2 at lower MSA depths allows the exploration of the space of these alternative conformations, including identifying previously unobserved conformations for 398 kinases. The results of our analysis of structural modeling by AF2 create a new avenue for the pursuit of new therapeutic agents against a notoriously difficult-to-target family of proteins.
Significance statement: Greater abundance of kinase structural data in inactive conformations, currently lacking in structural databases, would improve our understanding of how protein kinases function and expand drug discovery and development for this family of therapeutic targets. Modern approaches utilizing artificial intelligence and machine learning have potential for efficiently capturing novel protein conformations. We provide evidence for a bias within AlphaFold2 and ESMFold to predict structures of kinases in their active states, similar to their overrepresentation in the PDB. We show that lowering the AlphaFold2 algorithm's multiple sequence alignment depth can help explore kinase conformational space more broadly. It can also enable the prediction of hundreds of kinase structures in novel conformations, many of whose models are likely viable for drug discovery.