Evaluating the capabilities of a satellite communication system (SCS) is challenging due to its complexity and ambiguity. It is difficult to accurately analyze uncertain situations, making it difficult for experts to determine appropriate evaluation values. To address this problem, this paper proposes an innovative approach by extending the Dempster-Shafer evidence theory (DST) to the probabilistic hesitant fuzzy evidence theory (PHFET). The proposed approach introduces the concept of probabilistic hesitant fuzzy basic probability assignment (PHFBPA) to measure the degree of support for propositions, along with a combination rule and decision approach. Two methods are developed to generate PHFBPA based on multi-classifier and distance techniques, respectively. In order to improve the consistency of evidence, discounting factors are proposed using an entropy measure and the Jousselme distance of PHFBPA. In addition, a model for evaluating the degree of satisfaction of SCS capability requirements based on PHFET is presented. Experimental classification and evaluation of SCS capability requirements are performed to demonstrate the effectiveness and stability of the PHFET method. By employing the DST framework and probabilistic hesitant fuzzy sets, PHFET provides a compelling solution for handling ambiguous data in multi-source information fusion, thereby improving the evaluation of SCS capabilities.
Keywords: Dempster–Shafer evidence theory; capability evaluation; probabilistic hesitant fuzzy set; satellite communication system.