Objective To analyze the trends of disease burden of cervical cancer,uterine cancer,and ovarian cancer among Chinese women from 1990 to 2019,and to provide a basis for formulating precise prevention and control measures in China. Methods The global disease burden data in 2019 were used to describe the changes in indicators such as incidence,mortality,years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL),years lived with disability(YLD),and disability-adjusted life year(DALY) of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers in China from 1990 to 2019.Furthermore,the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to predict the incidence and mortality of the cancers from 2020 to 2030. Results From 1990 to 2019,the incidence rates and mortality of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers in Chinese women showed an upward trend,and the age-standardized incidence rate of ovarian cancer increased the most(0.78%).In 2019,the incidence of cervical cancer and uterine cancer concentrated in the women of 55-59 years old,and ovarian cancer mainly occurred in the women of 70-74 years old.The DALY,YLL,and YLD of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers all presented varying degrees of growth at all ages.The Bayesian age-period-cohort model predicted that from 2020 to 2030,the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer in China showed a decreasing trend,while those of uterine cancer and ovarian cancer showed an increasing trend.There was no significant change in the age with high incidence of the three cancers. Conclusions From 1990 to 2019,the overall disease burden of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers in China increased,while the disease burden of cervical cancer decreased after 2020.It is recommended that the efforts should be doubled for the prevention and control of cervical,uterine,and ovarian cancers.
目的 分析1990至2019年中国女性宫颈癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌的疾病负担变化趋势,为国家制订精准的防控策略提供依据。方法 基于2019年全球疾病负担数据,描述1990至2019年中国宫颈癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌的发病、死亡、早死亡损失寿命年(YLL)、伤残损失寿命年(YLD)、伤残调整生命年(DALY)等指标的变化情况,并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型对2020至2030年发病及死亡情况进行预测。结果 1990至2019年中国女性宫颈癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌的发病率和死亡率均呈上升趋势,卵巢癌年龄标准化发病率增幅最高(0.78%)。2019年宫颈癌、子宫癌的高发年龄均为55~59岁,卵巢癌为70~74岁。宫颈癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌各年龄段的DALY、YLL、YLD均有不同程度的增长。贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列模型预测显示,2020至2030年中国宫颈癌的发病率和死亡率呈下降趋势,而子宫癌和卵巢癌的发病率和死亡率呈上升趋势,但3种肿瘤的高发年龄段没有明显变化。结论 1990至2019年中国宫颈癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌的疾病负担整体上升,2020年以后宫颈癌的疾病负担下降,建议进一步加强宫颈癌、子宫癌和卵巢癌的防控工作。.
Keywords: burden of disease; cervical cancer; ovarian cancer; predictive analysis; uterine cancer.