Prognostic stratification of pulmonary carcinoids into "typical" and "atypical" categories requires examination of large tissue volume. However, there is a need for tools that provide similar prognostic information on small biopsy samples. Ki-67 and OTP immunohistochemistry have shown promising prognostic value in studies of resected pulmonary carcinoids, but prognostic value when using biopsy/cytology specimens is unclear. Ki-67 immunohistochemistry was performed on small biopsy/cytology specimens from pulmonary carcinoid tumors (n=139), and labeling index was scored via automated image analysis of at least 500 cells. OTP immunohistochemistry was performed on 70 cases with sufficient tissue and scored as positive or negative (<20% tumor nuclei staining). Higher Ki-67 index was associated with worse disease-specific progression-free survival (ds-PFS), with 3% and 4% thresholds having similarly strong associations with ds-PFS (P<0.001, hazard ratio ≥11). Three-year ds-PFS was 98% for patients with Ki-67 <3% and 89% for patients with Ki-67≥3% (P=0.0006). The optimal Ki-67 threshold for prediction of typical versus atypical carcinoid histology on subsequent resection was 3.21 (AUC 0.68). Negative OTP staining approached significance with atypical carcinoid histology (P=0.06) but not with ds-PFS (P=0.24, hazard ratio=3.45), although sample size was limited. We propose that Ki-67 immunohistochemistry may contribute to risk stratification for carcinoid tumor patients based on small biopsy samples. Identification of a 3% hot-spot Ki-67 threshold as optimal for prediction of ds-PFS is notable as a 3% Ki-67 threshold is currently used for gastrointestinal neuroendocrine tumor stratification, allowing consideration of a unified classification system across organ systems.
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