Using a database of 1974-2003 incident cases of haematological malignancies, we explored the time trend, geographic spread and socio-economic and environmental correlates of ALL incidence in Sardinia, Italy, by sex and age. The age- and sex-standardized (World population) ALL incidence rate was 2.0 per 100,000 (95% CI 1.8 - 2.1) and showed variable trend patterns by sex and age. In the total population, ALL incidence showed an annual per cent change of -1.4% (95% CI -0.59 - -3.34) over the study period, with a knot separating a downward slope in 1974-1996 from an increase in 1996-2003. ALL incidence replicated such pattern in women but not men, whose incidence did not substantially vary over the study period (APC = -2.57%, 95% CI -5.45 - 0.26). Among women, the spatial analysis suggested a clustering of ALL in the southwestern part of the region, whilst only a commune had a high posterior probability of a high ALL incidence among men. Three unrelated communes showed a high posterior probability of ALL at age ≤ 24; only the most populated urban centre showed excess cases at age ≥ 25 years. There was no correlation between the geographic spread of ALL at ages ≤ 24 and ≥ 25 years (p = 0.082). Urban residence was a risk factor for the younger age group. Residences near industrial settlements and in the most populated urban centre were risk factors for subjects aged ≥ 25 years. Our findings suggest age-related differences in ALL aetiology.
Keywords: Acute lymphoblastic leukaemia; Bayesian analysis; Geographic epidemiology; Time trends.
Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.