Measles remains a major threat to human health despite widespread vaccination. While we know that maternal antibodies can impair vaccine-induced immunity, the relative contributions of pre-existing immunity levels, maternal and infant characteristics on vaccine responses remain unclear, hampering evidence-based vaccination policy development. Here we combine serological data from 1,505 individuals (aged 0-12 years) in a mother-infant cohort and in a child cohort with empirical models to reconstruct antibody trajectories from birth. We show that while highly heterogeneous across a population, measles antibody evolution is strongly predictive from birth at the individual level, including following vaccination. Further, we find that caesarean section births were linked with 2.56 (95% confidence interval: 1.06-6.37) increased odds of primary vaccine failure, highlighting the long-term immunological consequences of birth route. Finally, we use our new understanding of antibody evolution to critically assess the population-level consequences of different vaccination schedules, the results of which will allow country-level evaluations of vaccine policy.
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.