Background: During active surveillance (AS) of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs), the majority remain stable, while some exhibit either increase or decrease in tumor diameter or tumor volume (TV). We aimed to evaluate the clinical outcomes and relevant parameters influencing tumor growth kinetics of low-risk PTCs.
Methods: This retrospective cohort study evaluated clinical parameters of 402 patients with low-risk PTC sized <2 cm, with a follow-up duration over 3 years. Changes in maximum tumor diameter, TV, and initial TV doubling time (i-TVDT) calculated within 3-year were assessed. A significant change in TV was defined as a change of 75% or more.
Results: Of the 402 patients with low-risk PTC, 93.3% (375/402) were diagnosed with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma. During a median follow-up of 5 years, 3.4% (14/402) of patients developed new cervical lymph node (LN) metastasis, and 8.2% (33/402) experienced maximal diameter increase of ≥3 mm. The i-TVDT of <5 years emerged as an independent risk factor for both maximal diameter growth and new LN metastasis (p<0.001 and p=0.04, respectively). Based on TV changes and i-TVDT during AS, we identified four statistically significant tumor kinetic patterns (p<0.001): Stable (±75% change in TV), Rapid growth (TV increase >75% and i- TVDT <5 years), Slow growth (TV increase >75% and i-TVDT ≥5 years), and Shrinkage (TV decrease >75%). Most of the PTCs remained stable (67.7%), but 17.2% were rapidly growing, with a median onset of growth of 2.0 years. Slowly growing PTCs, comprising 10.9%, grew at a median of 4.3 years. A minority, 4.2%, exhibited shrinkage. In total, 115 (28.6%) patients underwent delayed surgery >12 months after initiating AS. The reasons for delayed surgery included patient preference (51/115, 44.3%), disease progression (31/115, 27.0%), and suspected disease progression, which was referred to as tumor growth not meeting the criteria of an increase of ≥3 mm in maximal tumor diameter (17/115, 14.8%).
Conclusion: An i-TVDT of <5 years serve as an important prognostic indicator for disease progression, including tumor growth and new LN metastasis. The four tumor kinetic patterns based on TV changes and i-TVDT assist in guiding personalized decisions early in AS.