The aim of this study was to determine whether gastric intramucosal pH (pHim) and/or gastric intramucosal carbon dioxide tension (PCO2,im) measured by tonometry can be used to predict the success of weaning in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients. Twenty six consecutive COPD patients, undergoing mechanical ventilation for acute respiratory failure and satisfying the criteria of weaning from mechanical ventilation with nasogastric tonometer in place, were studied. Arterial blood gas values and PCO2,im were measured 24 h before (H-24), just before (H0), and after 20 min of a weaning trial on T-piece (H20min). Weaning failure was defined as the development of respiratory distress and/or arterial blood gas impairments during the first 2 h of spontaneous breathing on T-piece, or reintubation within 24 h after extubation. Between the weaning failure (n = 6) and weaning success (n = 20) groups, there were no differences in blood gas analysis readings at H-24 and H0 before the weaning period, age, Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) on admission, SAPS on the day of weaning trial, and duration of ventilation. Clinical status, tonometric and arterial gasometric data were similar at H-24 and H0 in all patients. During mechanical ventilation, pHim was < or = 7.30 in patients who failed weaning and > 7.30 in patients who were successfully weaned (p < 0.001; 100% sensitivity and specificity). The threshold value for PCO2,im of 8.0 kPa (60 mmHg) represents a clear demarcation with respect to outcome before the weaning trial. PCO2,im values during mechanical ventilation are significantly different (p < 0.001) between patients who were successfully weaned and those who were not (6.9 +/- 0.9 vs 9.9 +/- 1.1 kPa (51.9 +/- 6.7 vs 74.3 +/- 8.0 mmHg, respectively)). At H20min, pHim and PCO2,im were still statistically different between the weaning failure and the weaning success group. We conclude that measurement of gastric intramucosal pH (or gastric intramucosal carbon dioxide tension) represents a simple and accurate index to predict weaning outcome in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease patients before attempting weaning.