Among community-living elderly persons, a single assessment of physical performance is a powerful predictor of dependence in activities of daily living (ADLs). The aim of this study was to determine whether an assessment of change in physical performance provides useful prognostic information beyond that available from a single assessment. Among a large representative cohort of elderly persons, we evaluated the 586 participants who were ADL independent at both the baseline and the one year interviews. For each of the three timed tests, participants who had a large decline in physical performance were significantly more likely to develop ADL dependence at three years than those who improved or showed no change. After adjusting for 1-year scores, however, change in physical performance was no longer associated with ADL dependence. However, among the 775 participants who were ADL independent at the baseline interview, change in physical performance was significantly associated with the onset of ADL dependence at one year, even after adjusting for baseline performance. When determining risk for ADL dependence, an assessment of change in physical performance over one year does not provide useful prognostic information beyond that available from a single assessment. Nevertheless, change in physical performance is independently associated with concurrent ADL dependence and may be useful in predicting future disability if measured over shorter intervals.