The 1997 edition of Public Health Status and Forecasts, a comprehensive epidemiological overview of the health of the Dutch nation, suggests some important new strategies for the development of a more 'evidence-based health policy'. The growing gap between life expectancy in general and healthy life expectancy demands a stronger effort in the prevention of unhealthy lifestyles, especially smoking. Many indicators of health show the first signs of decline for the coming 10-20 years. The growing burden of chronic diseases and longlasting handicaps points towards a doubling of the present yearly rise in the health budget to at least 2%. Methodological innovations in measuring health effects are a striking feature of the 1997 'explorations' report.